Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.012681 0.014332 0.016119 0.018195 0.020544 0.023119 0.026158
2025-11-23 0.009869 0.012099 0.014714 0.018011 0.022059 0.026873 0.033042
2025-11-30 0.008568 0.011105 0.014250 0.018441 0.023887 0.030738 0.040032
2025-12-07 0.007262 0.009848 0.013202 0.017878 0.024243 0.032627 0.044545
2025-12-14 0.006362 0.008972 0.012493 0.017598 0.024831 0.034746 0.049426
2025-12-21 0.005570 0.008135 0.011716 0.017094 0.024994 0.036214 0.053445
2025-12-28 0.005235 0.007895 0.011730 0.017680 0.026713 0.039974 0.061038
2026-01-04 0.004881 0.007584 0.011598 0.018013 0.028057 0.043258 0.068171
2026-01-11 0.004597 0.007344 0.011538 0.018431 0.029538 0.046837 0.076034
2026-01-18 0.004223 0.006923 0.011155 0.018295 0.030113 0.049022 0.081829
2026-01-25 0.003918 0.006584 0.010866 0.018274 0.030852 0.051499 0.088273
2026-02-01 0.003601 0.006195 0.010458 0.018010 0.031151 0.053250 0.093606
2026-02-08 0.003400 0.005988 0.010345 0.018249 0.032344 0.056638 0.102143
2026-02-15 0.003149 0.005675 0.010023 0.018096 0.032841 0.058867 0.108825
2026-02-22 0.003017 0.005558 0.010032 0.018527 0.034405 0.063088 0.119479
2026-03-01 0.002748 0.005169 0.009521 0.017962 0.034087 0.063862 0.123736
2026-03-08 0.002546 0.004887 0.009180 0.017680 0.034267 0.065550 0.129854
2026-03-15 0.002333 0.004566 0.008741 0.017174 0.033968 0.066295 0.134166
2026-03-22 0.002277 0.004543 0.008863 0.017763 0.035853 0.071396 0.147618
2026-03-29 0.002193 0.004458 0.008858 0.018098 0.037253 0.075641 0.159668
2026-04-05 0.002124 0.004397 0.008895 0.018517 0.038855 0.080408 0.173208
2026-04-12 0.002000 0.004214 0.008671 0.018380 0.039284 0.082791 0.181848
2026-04-19 0.001898 0.004067 0.008510 0.018359 0.039952 0.085720 0.191911